Student Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Projection Methodology

Student enrollment is the primary factor in determining school district revenue, and how much funding is provided to individual schools. 

Kindergarten through 12th grade student enrollment projections for the school year are calculated using a method called the "Cohort Survival Methodology". This data-driven method (or a version of it) is also used by St. Paul Public Schools and the University of Minnesota because it is one way to provide accurate enrollment projections. The projection model used in MPS considers the following: 

SY27 Student Enrollment Projections (K-12) Districtwide

MPS aims to build upon our recent enrollment growth after years of declining enrollment, using a range of strategies like promoting our values, programmatic offerings, and class sizes; utilizing efficient and strategic school placement and registration processes; and focusing on retention as students transition between school levels (early childhood to elementary; elementary to middle; and middle to high).

For the 2026-27 school year, we are again projecting a modest increase in enrollment, continuing our recent trend of steady growth.

The table below shows October 1 Enrollment Trend (K-12 only, including contract alternative programs)